Hydrogen is key to the decarbonisation of the global energy system but policies fail to match its importance and it could become “the great missed opportunity” of the energy transition, according to Norwegian assurance and risk management expert DNV.
The firm said on Tuesday that urgent and significant policy actions on the part of governments are needed to spur hydrogen uptake.
In a new report, DNV forecasts that hydrogen will account for only 0.5% of the energy in 2030 and 5% in 2050, way below the 15% that will be needed by the middle of the century to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.
Europe will be the forerunner, reaching a hydrogen share in the energy mix of 11% by 2050. OECD Pacific is expected to have 8% hydrogen in the energy mix in 2050, North America 7% and Greater China 6%. Together, the four regions will represent two-thirds of the global hydrogen demand for energy by 2050, according to DNV’s projections.
Electricity-based green hydrogen will account for 72% of production by 2050, which means extra renewable energy will be needed to power 3,100 GW of electrolysers – more than the current installed solar and wind capacity, the firm said.
It projects that between now and 2050 the world will invest USD 6.8 trillion (EUR 6.5trn) in producing hydrogen for energy uses plus USD 530 billion in ammonia terminals and USD 180 billion in hydrogen pipelines, more than half of which will be repurposed from natural gas pipelines. According to DNV, hydrogen will be transported by pipelines within and between countries, but not between continents. Its global trade by ship will be limited, while the hydrogen derivative ammonia is expected to be traded globally.
Early hydrogen demand will be led by industries such as iron and steel production. Hydrogen derivatives like ammonia and methanol that can decarbonise shipping and aviation are not expected to scale until the 2030s. DNV also does not see hydrogen making progress in passenger vehicles and expects it to achieve only limited uptake in power generation. For heating of buildings, there will be early demand in some regions with good gas infrastructure, but no global uptake.
(USD 1 = EUR 0.957)
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Image by DNV (www.dnv.com)
